Drosnin's Atomic War Predictions Lack Mathematical Significance. Published in 2007, with one important update on April 6, 2015 under Figure 5.
In 1997 Michael Drosnin published a book entitled THE BIBLE CODE. In it he predicted that Libyans and Syrians would launch an atomic attack on
I personally went to
An exhaustive analysis of Drosnin’s findings reveals that many are not significant. Supposedly related finds do not show up on plots at related skips with common column width. Where such material share no more than a single letter from one matrix to another, a three-dimensional plot would be required to compactly show the true relationship of letters to each other. Such a plot does not lend itself well to a two-dimensional book page. But even if we could display the required complex model with new computer software, the possibility of finding desired key words increases greatly with the addition of a third dimension. This, of course, implies a proportional decrease in the statistical significance of such a plot.
Probability calculations in this article will generally focus on the chance of finding individual items seen on the plots examined rather than combined probabilities as is the case in the rest of my Ark Search experiment. This is because the specification of key words in the
So how good are Drosnin’s Atomic Holocaust findings? We begin with my Figure 1, a composite of Drosnin plots found on pages 87, 124, and 163 of THE BIBLE CODE. The plot shows the axis term,World War, vertically. This find of World War occurs at a skip of +2,839. Figure 1 shows the Hebrew year 5760 (1999-2000 CE) not too far from World War, but page 124-125 of Drosnin’s book also portrays the Hebrew year 5766 connect his World War plot with an Atomic Holocaust plot. Drosnin’s book was published in 1997. I’m writing this article in 2008. No world war occurred in either 2000 or 2007. Therefore we now know neither year just cited turned out to be significant. This was also true for a year he suspected at an earlier time - 1996.
The way that the World War and Atomic Holocaust plots are arranged in Drosnin’s book, one might easily get the impression that one plot is a continuation of the next. This, however, would be a false impression because Atomic Holocaust is found at a skip of 3,133. The World War and Atomic Holocaust terms can only be properly related in three dimensions because the base skips are not compatible for a small two-dimensional matrix.
OTHER FIGURE 1 TERMS
Also on Figure 1 are the Drosnin finds for the words 9th of Av is the day of the Third, Ariel (which in the Book of Isaiah is used to mean Jerusalem), and In the End of Days.
A speadsheet for Figure 1 indicates the probability for everything shown except the phrase In the End of Days which is considered too vague. In the 714-letter box, the chance for The 9th of Av is the Date of the Third to be there was about one in 427. As such, it’s the most significant aspect of the find. This is so because of the low probability, the fact that the 9th of Av has long been a day of dread for Israel (both Temples in Jerusalem were destroyed on this day), and because it includes The Third which may refer to the Third World War.
Ariel is at the special case skip of -1. The probability that a form of Jerusalem or Ariel would appear somewhere on Figure 1 at such a special case is about one in 31, but Jerusalem is found at an ELS so frequently that it looks like Drosnin was reaching to have to settle for Ariel. The year (now disproven) 5760 had better than one chance in four of being somewhere on the plot so it wasn’t significant.
FIGURE 2: ATOMIC HOLOCAUST WITH IN THE END OF DAYS
On Figure 2 below, Atomic Holocaust is encoded at a skip of -3,133. Column width is set at 1,044 as it was on Page 125 of THE BIBLE CODE. Items of note on Figure 2 include Ramallah, a hotbed of the Palestinian uprising and Yasser Arafat’s headquarters before his death. This city’s name shares a letter mem with Atomic Holocaust. Like Ramallah, the phrase Fulfills a prophecy is also at a skip of –1 (a special case). Libya is also shown on Figure 2 with a skip of –1 and it too shares a letter vav with Atomic Holocaust. The phrase in Egypt touches a letter alef in Atomic Holocaust. The same exact phrase In the End of Days as was seen on Figure 1 encoded with World War appears here too.
Finally, the phrase Code will Rescue (Drosnin translates it as Code will Save) appears at skip +1. This same phrase is shown forming a perpendicular with Atomic Holocaust in a plot presented as Figure 3 with column width set there at 3,133.
Of particular note on Figure 2 above is that the exact same single occurrence phrase that started my search for the Ark of the Covenant, Egyptians were burying seen in ELS Map 1, and the last letter (tav) of the encoding of Ark of the Covenant at skip –306 at Numbers 33:4 are on the plot with the tav of Ark of the Covenant less than three letters away from the letters mem and vav of Atomic Holocaust, but a three dimensional model would be required to show the full relationship between Egyptians were burying, Ark of the Covenant, and Atomic Holocaust.
What shall our calculations be based upon? The matrix in question has 735 letters. Unlike the World War plot, we will search the Control (all Torah) for In the End of Days here because it was seen on the World War plot too and we want to know how likely it is that this phrase would repeat here. We search for this phrase only at skip +1 as we will for
As the spreadsheet indicates below, none of the locations shown on the plot are statistically significant. The odds are better than one chance in two that Israel, Egypt, and Libya would appear on the plot (but on Figure 3 the odds that Libya at skips +1, -1, “N,” or “-N” would be in a 30-letter box with Atomic Holocaust were about 1 in 26. Even Ramallah had a surprisingly high probability – about one chance in 4 that it would be there. This is so because the open text here includes the commonly found words “Moses saying” (Ramallah at skip –1 is made of the four letters of saying and the last letter of Moses). Three items were statistically significant – the phrases In the End of Days, Code will rescue/save, and Egyptians were burying.
The chance that one of the four Torah findings of In the End of Days would be there was about 1 in 104 (but the finding was, again, the exact same finding as was seen on the World War plot). The probability for Code will rescue/save to be on the plot is one chance in 207, while the probability for Egyptians were burying was about one in 415. The combined chance that all three phrases would be this close to Atomic Holocaust would have been about one in 8,990,366 if these three phrases were the only phrases sought a-priori. Unfortunately, I can’t consider such a figure to be a real probability because I have no way of knowing what was a-priori, what was a-posteriori, and what was sought but not found. Only Mr. Drosnin can address these issues. Further, the phrase Egyptians were burying is significant in my research, but was not mentioned by Drosnin even though it obviously is a topic related to any potential nuclear war.
On page 132 of his first book, Drosnin has a plot based on a finding of Atomic Weapon intersecting
FIGURE 5: ARMAGEDDON, ASAD, HOLOCAUST
The best and most worrisome matrix published in Drosnin's book, THE BIBLE CODE, is seen on page 134 of his book. Three words appear in sequence. They are Armageddon, Asad, and Holocaust. Figure 5 shows this material at a skip of -4,240 letters. The three words are composed of 13 letters. As a general rule, it is rare to find an a-priori ELS of more than 9 or 10 letters. Some of this ELS train may have been noticed while snooping (not an a priori protocol), but thirteen meaningful letters in sequence and on topic is still quite extraordinary.
How do we evaluate Figure 5? Without proof to the contrary, I must error on the side of caution and assume that Drosnin searched just for Armageddon (a term only found in the open text of the New Testament). If so, he probably noticed a-posteriori the words Asad and Holocaust. If we ask what are the chances that such a find would be in a 13-letter box with Armageddon, it’s one chance in 23,447 without considering an issue of conflicting letters. It’s even more significant when we consider that there are conflicting letters in the 13-letter box. Further, while Drosnin overlooked it on his matrix, touching the 13-letter ELS for Armageddon/Asad/ Holocaust is, in direct sequence at skip +1, Libya/Egypt. This is the only time in the entire Tenach that these two countries appear together in this manner.
CONJECTURE: What do the Codes appear to be telling us? If the message is deliberately encoded, my guess is that the Libyans planned to decapitate Israeli Command and Control with a nuclear strike aimed at West Jerusalem. Perhaps the plan changed when the U.S. removed Libyan nuclear facilities in 2003, and changed again when the Israelis obliterated a clandestine Syrian nuclear power plant in 2007. But, even without considering the Iranian nuclear threat, North Korea must be factored into the equation. They had ten people killed when Israel struck the Syrian site. If, when the North Koreans blew up their own nuclear reactor's cooling tower at Yongbyon on June 27, 2008, this wasn't just a ruse - then North Korea may simply decide that it's easier just to sell Syria a Korean atomic bomb. If Israel thought Hamas was being aided by Egypt allowing weapons to be smuggled into Gaza via tunnels near Rafah, we could understand the meaning in Figure 2 above where Atomic Holocaust meets Egyptians were burying. Israel nukes Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, and Iran. Or does it? For we also saw that in Figure 3 Atomic Holocaust also intersects Code will save. It was for this reason that I met with Egyptian Government officials at their embassy in Tel Aviv, and in El Arish in 1999. For detail of those meetings, read Ark Code (note: this story is being posted today, November 6, 2008, at 1st Expedition).
UPDATE OF APRIL 6, 2015: What nobody saw back in 2007 when I last touched this article was that OBAMA is at the same skip as ATOMIC HOLOCAUST. In fact, there are many matrices that suggest he will be responsible for such an event. See the updated OBAMA CONTENTS to learn more.
FIGURE 6 – ARAFAT, BARAK, AND END OF DAYS
On my History Channel appearance, I was asked if we are in the End of Days. Based on Figure 6, I stated that the Codes seemed to indicate we are - HOWEVER - what they edited was the fact that I then suggested this is good news because (from the Jewish viewpoint) it means that the Messiah will come soon, end all war, and fulfill all the wonderful promises that God has long given us. The film crew did not tell me that their production was aimed specifically at a Christian market, who based on the Book of Revelations, look forward to a horrendous end of the world. This is not my belief at all.
Figure 6 is a DNA-type plot with a sugar-phosphate-sugar-phosphate component presented by two findings of End of Days. The first find (in the open text at Deuteronomy 4:30) is Hebrew. The second find at a skip of -7,551 is Aramaic and matches the last two words of the book of Daniel. The first of the two nucleotide bases for the plot, Arafat is at skip +1. The second nucleotide base is E. Barak - Prime Minister of Israel from May, 1999 until March, 2001). E. Barak at (skip -1) shares the letter kuf with the Aramaic expression for End of Days, Kaytz HaYamin . Thus Arafat touched one of End of Days expression and E. Barak intersected the other . With the four letters before Arafat we have Arafat is stiff-necked (certainly a correct prediction with respect to his behavior at the Camp David Summit with Ehud Barak and President Bill Cinton). While Arafat is now dead, amazingly, Ehud Barak is still (as of November, 2008) Israel's Defense Minister.
BOTTOM LINE: Drosnin's findings are a mix of interesting terms and nonsignificant material. He himself admits on page 159 of his first book that, "The atomic attack predicted for the last days of 5756 (ending on September 13, 1996) was obviously a probability that did not happen....On several occasions we have seen things happen as predicted, but not when predicted." Drosnin got some things right, and many things wrong. His second book was a huge disappointment. Are there items apparently encoded that merit our cautious attention? Absolutely. Is the Bible Code now something that we can effectively use when planning for national security? No. However, should the ELS Maps seen throughout this web site actually lead to an Ark recovery, then it is likely that sufficient resources will be harnessed to learn if there is more than just an Ark Code here.